Vatican: Pope too weary at his age for the job

LONDON (AP) ? When he became pope at age 78, Benedict XVI was already the oldest pontiff elected in nearly 300 years. He's now 85, and in recent years he has slowed down significantly, cutting back his foreign travel and limiting his audiences.

The pope travels to the altar in St. Peter's Basilica on a moving platform to spare him the 100-yard (-meter) walk down the aisle. Occasionally he uses a cane. Late last year, people who were spending time with the pontiff emerged saying they found him weak and too tired to engage with what they were saying.

The Vatican stressed on Monday that no specific medical condition prompted Benedict's decision to become the first pontiff to resign in 600 years. Still, Benedict said his advanced age means he no longer has the necessary physical strength to lead the world's more than one billion Roman Catholics.

That Benedict is tired would be a perfectly normal diagnosis for an 85-year-old pope, even someone with no known serious health problems and a still-agile mind.

He has acknowledged having suffered a hemorrhagic stroke in 1991 that temporarily affected his vision, but he later made a full recovery. In 2009, the pope fell and suffered minor injuries when he broke one of his wrists while vacationing in the Alps.

A doctor familiar with the pope's medical team told The Associated Press on Monday that the pontiff has no grave or life-threatening illnesses. But, the doctor said, the pope ? like many men his age ? has suffered some prostate problems. Beyond that, the pope is simply old and tired, the doctor said on condition of anonymity.

According to the pope's brother Georg Ratzinger, the pontiff was told by his doctor not to take any more trans-Atlantic trips. In fact, the pontiff's only foreign trip this year was scheduled to be a July visit to Brazil for the church's World Youth Day.

Experts weren't surprised the pope's health problems were slowing him down.

"In someone who's 85 and has arthritis, the activities of being a pope will be a struggle," said Dr. Alan Silman, the medical director of Arthritis Research U.K. He said Pope Benedict most likely has osteoarthritis, which causes people to lose the cartilage at the end of their joints, making it difficult to move around without pain.

"It would be painful for him to kneel while he's praying and could be excruciating when he tries to get up again," Silman said, adding that for people with arthritis, even standing for long periods of time can be challenging.

Silman said some drugs could help ease the pain, but most would come with side effects such as drowsiness or stomach problems, which would likely be more serious in the elderly.

The doctor said it isn't clear whether the pope's arthritis would worsen with age. "It could be it's as bad as it's going to get," he said. "But it already sounds like he has it pretty bad and continuing with all the activities of being the pope won't help."

Joe Korner, a spokesman for Britain's Stroke Association, said having a mild stroke also could be a warning of a possible major stroke in the future. "I would imagine the pope has been warned this could happen and that he should make some changes to his lifestyle," Korner said, including reducing stress levels.

When he became pope, Benedict replaced John Paul, who died in 2005 at the age of 84. He was the Vatican's most-traveled pontiff, visiting 129 countries during his nearly 27-year papacy and had captured the world's affection like no other pope.

In the last year of his life, John Paul was forced to curtail his travels because of old age and illness, including trembling hands and slurred speech, an inability to walk or hold his head up, and other symptoms of Parkinson's disease.

____

Nicole Winfield in Rome contributed to this story.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/vatican-pope-too-weary-age-job-183231025.html

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Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow?: Berlin Review - The Hollywood ...

The Bottom Line

Lively Taiwanese dramedy pits repressed sexuality against longstanding family traditions.

Venue

Berlin Film Festival (Panorama Special)

Writer-Director

Arvin Chen

Cast

Richie Jen, Mavis Fan, Stone, Kimi Hsia, Lawrence Ko, Wong Ka Lok

BERLIN -- Hoping to answer the question posed by its titular Shirelles song -- which, as is de rigueur in any recent Asian film, is performed here in a full-length Karaoke version ? writer-director Arvin Chen?s Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow? follows two Taiwanese couples trying to stick together amid emotional and sexual upheavals that threaten the sanctity of their safe, and hetero, relationships. Wry and whimsical, but perhaps too broad for artsy Western tastes, this ensemble romantic dramedy should see decent business in the East (Warner Bros. is releasing in Taiwan), with ancillary possibilities in other markets, including those catering to the LGBT set.

From its playful premiere sequence, which concludes with a character opening an umbrella and floating up to the sky, Tomorrow distinguishes itself from the kind of dark, Taipei-set stories that have filled fests and art-houses over the last few decades. Indeed, the American born-and-educated Chen?s debut feature, Au Revoir Tapei, was already a genre-jumping crossover, and his latest seems to tread in similar waters, sharing influences with both local classics (Edward Yang -- another purveyor of 60?s pop -- comes to mind) and works from Hollywood?s Golden Age, especially the Technicolor romances of Vincent Minelli and George Cukor.

But this lighthearted tale of repressed sexuality and marital woes seems to have a different kind of agenda, even if it often fits the mode of your typical mainstream rom-com, with the usual run of quid pro quos, mistaken identities and botched wedding plans.

The story focuses on two thirty-something pairs: On the one side there?s the affable optician, Weichung (Richie Jen), who?s been married for nine years to corporate clerk, Feng (Mavis Fan, excellent). And on the other there?s Weichung?s sister, Mandy (Kimi Hsia), a sexy maneater who?s decided to finally settle down and tie the knot with the friendly sad sack, San-San (Stone).

Of course, things are not so simple, starting with the fact that Weichung clearly has a past that?s far less straight than the bifocals he meticulously prepares in his shop. He crosses paths at his sis? rehearsal dinner with a flamboyant wedding photographer (Lawrence Ko, hilarious) who, despite the fact that he?s also married, is leading a double-life as a gay party boy, and advises Weichung to do the same. When a handsome young flight attendant (HK actor Wong Ka Lok) ventures into the man?s store, it?s love at first (near or far) sight, and although the stoic husband and dad tries to fight off his homoerotic urges, he can only hold out for so long.

Meanwhile, Mandy starts having second thoughts about her upcoming marriage, and they come to a head in a funny flashback that shows her freaking out during an all-too routine shopping trip to Carrefour. She decides to ditch San-San and lock herself indoors, binging on instant ramen and cheesy soap operas until she can figure out whether she?s really in love at all.

Directing with an easygoing, occasionally swoony style, Chen cuts back and forth between the various characters as they deal with their quashed desires and emotional predicaments, with the main plot-point pivoting on whether Weichung?s wife Feng, who is hoping to have a second child, will learn about her husband?s hidden sexual identity. The Mandy-San-San debacle is, on the other hand, a bit too cursory, and seems to be there mainly for comic relief and as a narrative framing device.

Indeed, more than anyone else, Feng seems to be the center of attention here, and the film inevitably wonders what she?ll do about the truth once she uncovers it. In other words, how can a society steeped in marital traditions deal with shifting cultural attitudes toward homosexuality? If Chen?s ultimate answer may seem like a copout to some, it?s perhaps less important than the fact that he?s raising the question at all, especially in this kind of carefree, commercially-minded movie.

Filled with colorful street scenes and candy-tinged interiors (courtesy of D.P. Hsia Shao-Yu, Return Ticket), Tomorrow reveals a Taipei that has rarely looked so jolly on screen, and the film coasts along to its final conflict at a fairly brisk pace, even if there are a few longueurs along the way. Still, when Chen stops to let Fan (Flying Swords of Dragon Gate) belt out her own alcohol-infused version of the title track (written by Carole King and Gerry Goffin), it?s the kind of indulgence we can all enjoy.

?

Production companies: 1 Production Film

Cast: Richie Jen, Mavis Fan, Stone, Kimi Hsia, Lawrence Ko, Wong Ka Lok

Director, screenwriter: Arvin Chen

Producer: Yating Chang

Director of photography: Hsia Shao-Yu

Music: Hsu Wen

Costume designer: Sharon Wei

Editor: Justin Guerrieri

Sales Agent: Media Asia Film Distribution

No rating, 105 minutes

Source: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/review/will-you-still-love-me-420067

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Obama, Romney back on attack as campaign hits final stretch

GREEN BAY, Wisconsin (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney were back on the attack on Thursday, breaking a storm-induced campaign truce to hit the road and pound home their closing messages in the final stretch of a tight battle for the White House.

With five days left until Tuesday's election, Obama resurrected his 2008 "change" slogan and said he was the only candidate who had actually fought for it. Romney criticized Obama as a lover of big government who would expand the federal bureaucracy.

National polls show the race is essentially deadlocked, and Obama and Romney will spend the final days in eight swing states that will decide who wins the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.

Obama made Wisconsin the first stop on a four-state swing on Thursday that will also take him to rallies in Nevada and Colorado before spending the night in Ohio. Romney planned a full day of campaigning across Virginia.

"You may be frustrated at the pace of change, but you know what I believe, you know where I stand," Obama told a crowd of 2,600 people on an airport tarmac in Wisconsin, a vital piece of his electoral strategy. "I know what change looks like because I've fought for it."

Romney criticized Obama's comment in an interview aired by MSNBC on Monday that he would like to consolidate government agencies that deal with business issues in a new department under a Secretary of Business.

"I don't think adding a new chair to his cabinet will help add millions of jobs on Main Street," Romney said.

Obama and Romney had put campaigning on hold for several days as the historic storm Sandy pounded the eastern seaboard, leaving a trail of destruction and forcing Obama to turn his attention to storm relief.

That pause produced some unexpected benefits for Obama, who won warm praise from Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Romney supporter, and spent days directing federal relief efforts in a show of presidential leadership that largely sidelined Romney.

But both candidates returned to political attacks on their first day back on the trail, although they struck a slightly more positive tone than usual in trying to woo undecided voters and push their own supporters to vote.

SWING-STATE ADVANTAGE FOR OBAMA

Obama has a slight advantage in polls in several key swing states, fueled primarily by a small but steady lead in the vital battleground of Ohio - a crucial cog in any winning scenario for either candidate - and slight leads in Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada.

Barring any surprises elsewhere, Obama can win a second term by capturing the Midwestern bastions of Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, and his schedule was aimed at shoring up his safety net there.

Obama plans to visit Ohio on each of the last four days of the campaign, and plans two more trips to Wisconsin and Iowa.

So far, Obama has planned just one visit each to Florida and Virginia, where most polls give Romney a slight lead. Romney will hit Wisconsin and Ohio on Friday, and New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado on Saturday.

Romney plans to finish up his campaign on Monday night in New Hampshire, the state where he launched his bid last year.

Romney's campaign has aired ads in recent days in the Democratic-leaning states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, hoping to put them in play after polls showed the races tightening but Obama still ahead.

But so far Romney has not scheduled campaign visits to any of those states. Romney's running mate Paul Ryan visited Minnesota earlier this week, and could hit Pennsylvania over the weekend.

Romney aides say the campaign's moves into those three new states were a sign of their growing momentum, although Obama aides described them as a desperate ploy to find new paths to 270 electoral votes.

A Reuters/Ipsos national online poll on Thursday showed the race remained effectively deadlocked, with Obama at 47 percent to Romney's 46 percent. Most national polls showed roughly similar results.

A series of swing state polls found Obama was clinging to slender leads in five of the eight most heavily contested states - Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Romney in most polls has a slight lead in Florida, while Virginia and Colorado were effectively tied.

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Virginia; Writing by John Whitesides; Editing by Vicki Allen)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/obama-front-center-storm-crisis-romney-subdued-001141530.html

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Down Home: Highlights from Homeschool Counseling

{photo by Jenny Curzan}

A few weeks ago, we hosted a ?Homeschool Counseling Seminar? on each track, as a forum to share ideas, problem-solve, and support each other in home education. For those who attended, we hope you found some inspiration and a handful of ideas to try. For those who were not able to attend, here are some of the tips, resources, and thoughts from those two days, that we wanted to pass along to everyone.?

First, some insights and ideas that were shared about homeschooling and tackling various issues:

? One parent is finding that starting her homeschool day with a few positive words to her kids about what a great job they are doing, or why she is thankful to have this time with them, is doing a lot to help her own attitude and mindset, as well as fostering a better relationship with her kids. It?s good to frequently remind yourself (and your kids) of the reasons why you have chosen this type of education.

? It?s important to protect your homeschooling time as much as you are able to, and to give your kids the same attention you expect them to give you. Checking email, taking phone calls, running errands during homeschool hours... sometimes it works out fine, but most people generally felt their home days were better when they guarded that time.

? When working with students who want to be more independent with a subject, such as math or writing, one parent found it helpful to have frequent checkpoints to make sure the student was on the right track, rather than allowing them to complete the entire assignment without checking in, only to discover it was all done incorrectly.?

? Tips for wiggly ones who can?t sit still for a math lesson (or any subject): Look at the problem, run and touch the wall, then come back and write the answer. Or do math problems outside with chalk (then mom can copy them later into the book). Try jumping rope or another physical activity right before sitting down to learn, or even during a lesson. It really helps some kids to focus and retain more.

? Once in awhile to mix things up at home, or when you feel you?re in a rut, maybe try putting a couple of the home subjects on the back burner for just a week, and replacing that time with a fun creative project the kids can get involved in, like something from the blog post about using butcher paper, or crafts that go along with our history, literature, or science (a google search can reveal lots of possibilities). Or ask your kids what they are interested in - they may have ideas in mind for a project they?d love to work on.

? Keep reading aloud to your kids, even the high schoolers!

? One parent of high schoolers who has been homeschooling for a long time says to believe in what you are doing, in the school, in the teachers, and in your kids. Let your kids see that, and they will be successful.

And now, the practical stuff and resources (these are all parent recommendations shared during the seminar):

? The Blackgold Library system?s Overdrive program is a great way to download audiobooks and books for kindle or iPad, for free.

? When you just need to put on a video for the kids, Liberty?s Kids is a series about the American Revolution. You can purchase it, get the discs through Netflix, or find them on youtube.

? Crayola makes Bath Markers that are nice for practicing math facts, recitations, or spelling in the bath or shower!

Thanks to all who attended and shared their triumphs, trials, and suggestions. We appreciated hearing one another?s ideas and hope you can gain from these collected tips as well.?

Let?s talk:?Do you have something to add to this list that would be helpful to another homeschooling parent out there? Please comment below!

To leave a comment on the blog, click below the post where it says ?No comments? (or ?1 comment?, or whatever number of comments already exist.) You do not need a google account. Under "Choose an identity" you can choose Name/URL to leave your name, or choose Anonymous.

SLO Classical Academy is not affiliated with any of the above mentioned businesses.

Source: http://sloca.blogspot.com/2012/10/highlights-from-homeschool-counseling.html

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Western aspen trees commonly carry extra set of chromosomes

Public release date: 31-Oct-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Jyoti Madhusoodanan
jmadhusoodanan@plos.org
415-568-4545 x187
Public Library of Science

Over 60 percent of aspen in parts of Utah, Colorado are triploid, new study shows

A large proportion of aspen in the western U.S. sport an extra set of chromosomes in their cells, a phenomenon termed triploidy, according to new research published Oct. 31 in the open access journal PLoS ONE by Karen Mock from Utah State University and colleagues at several other institutions. In some areas of southern Utah and Colorado, over 60% of aspen trees are triploid.

Though triploid trees are not uncommon, this genetic anomaly can cause altered physical traits including sterility or reduced fertility. Although a triploid aspen clone may reproduce with root suckers, the scientists say, it is unlikely to produce viable seed.

Mapping the rates of triploidy in aspen to latitude, glacial history and regional variation in climate, the researchers found that these rates were highest in unglaciated, drought-prone regions. Wolf, professor in USU's Department of Biology, notes triploid plants often have larger cells, which might affect how plants cope with different conditions. "It is possible triploid aspen can better absorb water than diploids and are therefore better suited to withstand dry conditions, but they may be especially vulnerable to severe drought," he says.

Iconic fall foliage of the north-western forests, aspen populations have been declining in recent years; their high mortality rates have been attributed to drought, insect pests and a mysterious syndrome termed "Sudden Aspen Decline" (SAD). The new research is based on data collected over more than eight years by the Forest Service, a NASA Biodiversity program, and several researchers and volunteers.

Lead author on the study Mock says, "Though our findings come from many years of study, they provide an important starting point as we go forward. What we're learning will help us understand both the past and the future of aspen in the West."

###

Citation: Mock KE, Callahan CM, Islam-Faridi MN, Shaw JD, Rai HS, et al. (2012) Widespread Triploidy in Western North American Aspen (Populus tremuloides). PLoS ONE 7(10): e48406.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048406

Financial Disclosure: The authors thank the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, NASA Biodiversity Program, USDA National Research Initiative, USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service, Utah Agricultural Experiment Station, Utah State University (USU) Cedar Mountain Initiative, and USU ADVANCE program, and for financial support. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing Interest Statement: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

PLEASE LINK TO THE SCIENTIFIC ARTICLE IN ONLINE VERSIONS OF YOUR REPORT (URL goes live after the embargo ends): http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048406

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 31-Oct-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Jyoti Madhusoodanan
jmadhusoodanan@plos.org
415-568-4545 x187
Public Library of Science

Over 60 percent of aspen in parts of Utah, Colorado are triploid, new study shows

A large proportion of aspen in the western U.S. sport an extra set of chromosomes in their cells, a phenomenon termed triploidy, according to new research published Oct. 31 in the open access journal PLoS ONE by Karen Mock from Utah State University and colleagues at several other institutions. In some areas of southern Utah and Colorado, over 60% of aspen trees are triploid.

Though triploid trees are not uncommon, this genetic anomaly can cause altered physical traits including sterility or reduced fertility. Although a triploid aspen clone may reproduce with root suckers, the scientists say, it is unlikely to produce viable seed.

Mapping the rates of triploidy in aspen to latitude, glacial history and regional variation in climate, the researchers found that these rates were highest in unglaciated, drought-prone regions. Wolf, professor in USU's Department of Biology, notes triploid plants often have larger cells, which might affect how plants cope with different conditions. "It is possible triploid aspen can better absorb water than diploids and are therefore better suited to withstand dry conditions, but they may be especially vulnerable to severe drought," he says.

Iconic fall foliage of the north-western forests, aspen populations have been declining in recent years; their high mortality rates have been attributed to drought, insect pests and a mysterious syndrome termed "Sudden Aspen Decline" (SAD). The new research is based on data collected over more than eight years by the Forest Service, a NASA Biodiversity program, and several researchers and volunteers.

Lead author on the study Mock says, "Though our findings come from many years of study, they provide an important starting point as we go forward. What we're learning will help us understand both the past and the future of aspen in the West."

###

Citation: Mock KE, Callahan CM, Islam-Faridi MN, Shaw JD, Rai HS, et al. (2012) Widespread Triploidy in Western North American Aspen (Populus tremuloides). PLoS ONE 7(10): e48406.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0048406

Financial Disclosure: The authors thank the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, NASA Biodiversity Program, USDA National Research Initiative, USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service, Utah Agricultural Experiment Station, Utah State University (USU) Cedar Mountain Initiative, and USU ADVANCE program, and for financial support. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing Interest Statement: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

PLEASE LINK TO THE SCIENTIFIC ARTICLE IN ONLINE VERSIONS OF YOUR REPORT (URL goes live after the embargo ends): http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048406

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/plos-wat102912.php

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Earnings Preview: Berkshire Hathaway 3Q earnings

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) ? When Berkshire Hathaway Inc. releases third-quarter earnings Friday, they will be dissected by investors looking for clues about the economy's health, what CEO Warren Buffett might invest in next, as well as any estimate of Berkshire's insurance losses from Superstorm Sandy.

Investors will also be interested to see how Berkshire's BNSF Railway fared as major freight railroads grapple with weak coal demand.

But the bottom-line profit the company reports could differ significantly from the operating results for Berkshire's 80-odd businesses because the paper value of its derivatives tied to several stock-market indexes varies widely.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Berkshire owns several large insurance and reinsurance companies, including Geico and General Re, so it often pays out sizeable claims after any major disaster.

For instance, Berkshire recorded a $2.4 billion loss from the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Insurance losses from Superstorm Sandy aren't likely to be a big concern for Berkshire, which has about $40 billion cash on hand, but they will affect fourth-quarter profit.

Jeff Matthews, an investor who wrote "Secrets in Plain Sight: Business & Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett," said it will be interesting to see how BNSF fared after other railroads reported lower coal volume and increases in crude oil and automotive shipments.

Matthews expects derivative contracts to be somewhat positive for Berkshire in the quarter. Last year Berkshire recorded a $1.53 billion paper loss on its derivative contracts and investments in the third quarter.

Several Berkshire subsidiaries are tied closely to residential housing ? including Shaw carpet, Acme Brick, Clayton Homes and HomeServices of America real estate ? so the quarterly report will offer some insight into the U.S. housing industry's recovery.

WHY IT MATTERS: Buffett's remarkable investing track record has earned the company a devoted following. Berkshire is also watched closely because the conglomerate's results offer a glimpse into a variety of industries.

WHAT'S EXPECTED: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Berkshire to report earnings of $1.38 per Class B share on $39.04 billion in revenue.

LAST YEAR'S QUARTER: Berkshire's net income fell 24 percent last year to $2.28 billion, or 92 cents per share, because of a sharp decline in the paper value of its derivative contracts.

___

Follow Josh Funk online at www.twitter.com/funkwrite

___

Online:

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: www.berkshirehathaway.com

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/earnings-preview-berkshire-hathaway-3q-earnings-200923678--finance.html

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Take Hurricane Sandy seriously, East Coast residents are warned

The East Coast prepares as the storm approaches.

NEW YORK ? East Coast residents prepared Saturday for the onslaught of Hurricane Sandy, which forecasters expect to make landfall as soon as Monday night and then merge with a sprawling winter storm to create weather havoc for tens of millions of people across one-third of the nation.

From Maine to the Carolinas, federal and state officials urged residents and businesses to prepare for the worst ? drenching rain, flooding, high winds, highs seas, snow and widespread power outages. Federal officials said the impact would extend into the Ohio Valley.

Even though Sandy was still at least two days away, residents along the northeastern Atlantic Coast, mindful of possible transit shutdowns and bombarded by storm warnings, kicked into preparation mode.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Sandy

Battery-operated lanterns, batteries, flashlights, tape, plastic tarps and rope vanished from shelves at hardware stores like Brown's, on the Rockaway peninsula in the New York City borough of Queens.

But nothing was in as much demand as sandbags, said Brown's owner Noni Signoretti, as customers lined up at cash registers. "We got 1,000 in, and within an hour they were gone," she said. The shop was expecting to receive 4,400 additional sandbags, and it planned to open two hours earlier than normal Sunday to accommodate the expected rush.

Like some on the peninsula, which was under a mandatory evacuation order when Hurricane Irene hit last year, Signoretti blamed much of the rush for supplies on the media frenzy surrounding Sandy.

"It's very similar to what we had with Irene ? the panic," she said. "And what's happening today is that the weather is so nice that people have the opportunity to walk around in a panic."

Indeed, the wind was relatively calm, the ocean waves were no bigger than normal, and the boardwalk was dotted with its usual Saturday array of joggers, dog walkers and residents sitting on benches staring out at the water.

Neither Signoretti nor one of her regular customers, Jeanette Bernstein, planned to leave if an evacuation order was issued. Bernstein heeded last year's order after preparing her home for flooding that never came.

"I saved the sandbags from the last time," said Bernstein, who planned to flood-proof her home this year with sandbags, plastic and boards hammered over the windows. But she said her days of fleeing storms were over.

"I've been here so many years, I remember the flood when we were in rowboats," Bernstein said. That was Hurricane Donna of 1960, which sent the ocean and the bay washing over the peninsula. "If I lived through that," she added, "I can live through anything."

In New Jersey, Gov. Chris Christie warned against such complacency even as he sympathized with skepticism about forecasters' predictions. "We have to be prepared for the worst here," he said. "I can be as cynical as any of you, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting it will be, you're going to wish you weren't as cynical."

Dozens were killed as Sandy passed through the Caribbean late last week. The storm weakened but was upgraded Saturday to a Category 1 hurricane and was expected to turn west and make landfall late Monday or early Tuesday, with forecasters suggesting Delaware or southern New Jersey as possible locations.

The storm is expected to merge with a cold front from Canada ? creating a dangerous system that could reach 800 miles in diameter, affecting a third of the United States. Winds up to 75 mph were measured Saturday as far as 100 miles from the eye of the storm, which remained over the ocean.

Even before Sandy makes landfall, conditions are going to get worse, said Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center.

"There's no avoiding a significant storm surge event over a large area," Knabb told reporters. "We just can't pinpoint who's going to get the worst."

Flood warnings are in effect in four states. Storm surges up to 4 feet were expected in parts of Delaware, and more than 2 feet of snow could bury West Virginia. A vast area from Virginia to New York could see up to 8 inches of rain over the next week.

"Don't get lulled tomorrow when there's not a lot of rain and not a lot of wind," New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said at a news conference Saturday. "This is a dangerous storm. I think we're going to be OK, but if it were to strengthen unexpectedly or change its expected path, it could do a lot of damage."

The storm may cause major disruptions for travelers going to and from the East Coast over the next several days. Airlines said they were closely monitoring the storm, and they urged travelers to regularly check the status of their flights.

Several major airlines waived fees for passengers wanting to change their reservations, subject to some restrictions. Delta Air Lines said travelers could change flights at no cost for travel to 15 states and Washington, D.C. United Airlines made a similar offer to reschedule flights for no fee for travel in and out of nearly 30 airports along the East Coast.

Hurricane Sandy had already forced President Obama's campaign to scuttle one of Vice President Joe Biden's two scheduled stops in Virginia on Saturday. Aides to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney say they are canceling their travel to make sure they don't get in the way of state and local officials bracing for the storm.

tina.susman@latimes.com

joseph.serna@latimes.com

Susman reported from New York and Serna from Los Angeles. Christi Parsons and Michael A. Memoli in the Washington bureau contributed to this report.

Source: http://feeds.latimes.com/~r/latimes/news/science/~3/WsEXkoHCeeI/la-na-super-storm-20121028,0,5131374.story

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